Shantanu Marathe's Blog

Fickle Markets

shantanumarathe — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 10:40:31 +0000

Yesterday many prople were writing off Euro and many sites and alalysts were talking of selling the Euro. I have become much wiser in the last couple of years so I kept away from joing the gang and waited patiently for Euro to do contrary to what everyone thought. And lo and behold it is doing opposite of what people thought. Not a new thing but yesterday was a good repeat of what markets always do, make the majority wrong.

Plans of mice and Men……..

shantanumarathe — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 12:35:38 +0000

Last week has been one helluva week. This week showed me how best laid plans of mice and men can go awry. All my usual gambits of forex trading that work in normal times failed miserably, and red ink splattered over my trading balance sheet.

One learning has been : avoid those fast and cutthroat moves of pairs. They lead to sorrow.

The slow, involved and very boring moves are where the money is.

Fast furious and exciting lands with losses

Slow tedious and boring lands with profits

EUR/USD at crossroads

shantanumarathe — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 11:59:03 +0000

Euro is trying to decide wherther to break out upwards against the USD or continue its recent downtrend. A beutiful congestion pattern is forming the resolution of which may happen this week, leading to some large moves.

EUR/USD for a swoon down?

shantanumarathe — Mon, 15 Nov 2010 13:29:28 +0000

It looks like Euro is catching a cold. Whether due to the already discounted Fed’s 600 billion dollar splurge over next many months or Ireland or what not may be the reason, USD seems to want to take off, at least in a short term horizon.

As is usual eur/usd topped out by the time the fed and other news came out and now seems slated for the slaughter house having fattened up over last month.

I guess a target in 1.3300s looks plausible.

Let us wait and watch.

Cheers

GBP changed its trend to Down

shantanumarathe — Wed, 20 Oct 2010 09:25:27 +0000

GBP/USD has changed daily trend to down. Now one needs to look for selling opportunities on rallies.

Euro going up to its earlier top

shantanumarathe — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 13:11:00 +0000

Euro is shooting for its earlier top. Looks like a 100 pips move.

Has the rally run its course?

shantanumarathe — Sat, 16 Oct 2010 08:34:56 +0000

For Euro and stocks it has been a heck of a joy ride. Is it going to end now? The Indian stock indices have almost touched their earlier high and caution needs to be exercised, in terms of being a bull. Does it mean the ugly bear will raise its head to bang the indices down? I do not know, in fact no one knows. As long as the easy money is running thru the system and needs to find ways to generate a return it is going to make another few attempts to take the market up. So best is to let the market run its course and make the deision. It is always easier to let the others decide, why take the responsibility?
Time will tell, all I wish is I would be with winning side at every turn!!

It is such a long time and titanic shifts in the markets meanwhile

shantanumarathe — Wed, 12 May 2010 10:24:19 +0000

I guess it is about 3 months since I wrote anything here. Been very busy with some assignments I was doing. Meanwhile the market was certainly not sleeping. In fact it was hyperactive. Dow saw its biggest ever intra day fall, thanks to algos or what the SEC also does not know. USD/JPY went thru similar tantrums. It was as if action of many many days were packed (like high gravity black hole) in a 10 minute window of time. And people talk of Average true range, Value at risk etc. etc.!! Any of those models would be unprepared for that fall. But if you are blindly following trends then it was not a surprise; the downward movement, I mean not the intensity. After all it was not that the market was going up and suddenly, bingo, it came down. Few days before it had been showing exhaustion of the up move. So wise guys had at least not been on the long side. The extra smart guys of course may have been short too, and made pots of gold.
As of now i feel we are still in a downtrend. The Dow is near it daily averages, good time to wait for a shorting opportunity? Same is the case with GBP, USD/JPY etc. Only time will tell if it happens.
I am lucky to have seen such a big fall and not getting burnt in it.

Last week has been one of big moves

shantanumarathe — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 14:04:21 +0000

After the big moves from last week one needs to wait patiently now, to try a trade in a sizeable correction if any that may happen now. The trends have got fairly firmly established against risk. We do not know how long this mentality will prevail. But technically a correction may be in offing.

New week/month beginning

shantanumarathe — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 11:15:56 +0000

Here starts the new week and month of February. Last week many pairs maintained and accelerated thier trends against the USD. Euro and GBP losing heavily while CHF gained.

This general trends may undergo a correction some time in the near future. Hopefully may give a chance to enter the market, do not know when though I do know it will.

USD/JPY seems to be consolidating to start its downtrend again. Again when that may happen is any body’s guess.